Low emissions scenario
2023
The energy world towards 2050
The stakes for the energy transition are higher than ever, and to reach net zero by 2050, we will need more of everything – and faster.
Developed by analysts leveraging the knowledge of 50 internal experts modelling power markets in detail across 21 countries, Statkraft’s Low Emissions Scenario is an optimistic but realistic assessment of global energy trends up to 2050.
In a first for the report, this year’s Low Emissions Scenario features two additional scenarios: Clean Tech Rivalry towards Net Zero and The Delayed Transition.
5 questions for a hydro project manager, Siri Todnem
Hydropower stands to play an ever-more vital role in our Low Emissions Scenario towards 2050. We chatted to Siri Todnem, project manager for the rehabilitation of one of Norway’s largest dams, to get up close and personal with hydro.
Meet Siri here
The Low Emissions Power Puzzle
In the Low Emissions Scenario, a successful energy transition requires a complex and coordinated set of actions from various actors and sectors. Keep reading to see how these specific puzzle pieces need to fall into place – and which ones may be missing across all three scenarios in the report.
Learn more here
Solar power myth-busting
Our Low Emissions Scenario shows solar going from strength to strength towards 2050. Despite this huge potential, some ‘solar myths’ remain. Read on, as Solar Project Manager Paolo Pizzorni, busts some of the biggest.
Meet Paolo here
LOOK AHEAD
-
2022
Global warming has already increased by 1.1 °C compared to pre-industrial levels, and we are experiencing the effects of this already.
-
2022
3/4 of greenhouse gas emissions come from the production and use of fossil energy.
-
2022
The energy crisis puts the need for more renewable energy higher on the agenda. In 2022, investment in renewable energy in the world is at an all-time high.
-
2025
With the continued cost decline for batteries, electric cars are becoming cheaper and will outcompete diesel and petrol cars in a growing number of places.
-
2025
Solar is growing fast. Solar PV technology is constantly improving and solar panels are increasingly common on buildings, on water and in combination with agriculture.
-
2026
The biggest offshore turbines planned off the coast of China will be coming online. Each turbine has an expected capacity of 16 MW. This means that after one hour in full operation, each turbine can produce four times the equivalent of the annual electricity consumption of an average European household.
-
2030
Statkraft's total power production from hydro, wind and solar may now have increased by 50%, to 100 TWh. That is almost three times as much electricity as the country of Denmark uses in a year.
-
2030
The EU's power sector now has a renewable share of around 70%, and is fully independent from Russian gas.
-
2035
Solar power has surpassed wind, and is now the world's largest power source.
-
2040
The cost of green hydrogen is lower, and its use is accelerating. This contributes to major emission cuts in sectors that can’t be electrified directly, such as heavy transport, shipping, and power-intensive industry.
-
2045
Electric cars now dominate the car fleet. This reduces the world's oil consumption by around 20 million barrels of oil every single day.
-
2050
Global power demand has more than doubled, and renewable energy constitutes 80% of the total power generation. Solar power is the largest technology, followed by onshore wind and offshore wind. Hydropower is the fourth largest.
-
2050
The consumption of fossil energy has fallen sharply. The proportion of coal in the power mix has fallen by 75%, and the proportion of gas by 23%.
-
2050
Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced by 60%. This is enough to limit global warming to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial time. To come closer to the 1.5 °C target, the transition needs to happen faster and go even further.
